New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty slumped over 1 per cent on Friday, tracking a weak trend in global markets and fresh foreign fund outflows. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 81,183.93.
It moved in a range of 66.9250 and 66.70 per dollar during the day
Market sentiment suffered a jolt after other Asian markets closed with widespread losses and European markets dropped in early trade
The dollar was weak against major world currencies.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their buying spree and poured close to Rs 4,800 crore in the Indian equity markets in the first week of January driven by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals. Additionally, they injected Rs 4,000 crore in the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. With expectations of a prolonged decline in US interest rates in 2024, there is an anticipation that FPIs will likely escalate their purchase, particularly in the initial months of the New Year leading up to the general elections, V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
There was net outflow of $7.2 billion from the Indian market in June of which $5.4 billion was from debt market triggered by global risk aversion and currency weakness, Deutsche Bank India Equity Strategy report said.
Weakness of dollar in the global markets and foreign capital outflows also affected the rupee sentiment.
Investors turned cautious as trade war concerns between the US and China escalated and a persistent weakness in the rupee became lingering concerns leading to volatility in the market
The US dollar jumped in overseas market on Wednesday.
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape. The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust.
The rupee tumbled 19 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 77.93 against the US dollar on Friday as rising crude oil prices and unabated foreign capital outflows soured sentiment. A sell-off in equity markets and stronger greenback overseas also weighed on the domestic unit, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 77.81 and witnessed an intra-day high of 77.79 and a low of 77.93 against the US dollar.
The Indian currency has shrunk 2.92 per cent since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential polls earlier this month.
Dollar's strength against some currencies overseas and firming crude oil prices also put pressure on the rupee, dealers said.
The dollar index was down by 0.02 per cent against a basket of six major currencies.
The rupee has dropped by 49 paise or 0.75 per cent in four days.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
This is rupee's lowest since 62.32 on January 9.
Once we break free of the idea that land is scarce, real estate is just a pile of bricks, steel, and glass. Any price surge will kick off a supply response, which kills off the possibility of sustained price appreciation, points out Ajay Shah.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes slightly dropped to Rs 96,292 crore at the end of December 2022 from the preceding month on higher valuation of domestic markets. Before the decline, the investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July because of a slump in prices of oil and other commodities and relative outperformance of Indian equity markets. Participatory notes (P-notes) are issued by registered Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly.
In line with equity market, the rupee trimmed its initial losses but was quoted still lower by 17 paise on dollar demand from banks and importers despite weakness of the US currency overseas.
A fresh demand for the US currency from importers weighed on rupee.
On Tuesday, the rupee had declined marginally by 3 paise to 66.03.
The rupee has lost 23 paise or 0.35 per cent in two days.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to do a balancing act by further liberalising limits on the foreign exchange outflow to tackle the capital inflow and its impact on inflation. The central bank was likely to raise the limit on corporate investment abroad and the ceiling on individual remittances overseas. RBI has liberalised limits on the overseas investment by companies from 200% to 400% of their networth. Liberalisation is proposed since India has good forex situation.
Equity benchmarks mustered gains for the first time this week on Thursday as investors piled into the recently-battered metal, bank and IT stocks amid expiry of monthly derivative contracts. Snapping its three-session losing streak, the 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 503.27 points or 0.94 per cent to settle at 54,252.53. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty gained 144.35 points or 0.90 per cent to end at 16,170.15.
The rupee extended its fall for the fourth consecutive day by losing another 6 paise to hit a fresh one-month low of 62.31.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday tabled the pre-Budget Economic Survey in the Lok Sabha.
The rupee had gained 90 paise, or 1.34 per cent.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, inflows minus outflows, declined sharply in April-August this year to $2.99 billion from $18.03 billion in the same period last year on moderation in global activities and a rise in repatriation. The Reserve Bank of India's data (October 2023 bulletin) said FDI in India was $7.28 billion and FDI by India, that is money invested abroad from the country, was $4.28 billion in April-August 2023. As for 2022, FDI in India was $22.79 billion and FDI by India was $4.76 billion in April-August.
The NBFCs, which filed for ECB in January with the Reserve of India (RBI), include REC (over $500 million), Tata Motors Finance ($200 million), L&T Finance Holdings ($125 million), and Shriram Finance ($750 million), according to the RBI data. A senior executive with State Bank of India (SBI) said overseas borrowing by Indian companies, including highly rated NBFCs, was likely to grow because hedging costs were low and there was a softening bias in global interest rates.
The rupee on Monday dropped by 30 paise to 54.72 against the US dollar in late morning trade, due to on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers despite a weak global trend.
Falling for the first time in three days, the rupee washed out initial gains to end four paise lower at 62.57 today on caution ahead of US non-farm payrolls data and sustained capital outflows from Indian markets.
Dealers said besides increased dollar selling by exporters, a higher opening in domestic equity market and yen's gain against the American currency overseas helped the rupee to recover.
Erasing early gains, the rupee on Friday ended 15 paise lower at 54.37 on month-end dollar demand from importers and heavy capital outflows, amid weak local stocks.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
The rupee on Monday appreciated by 11 paise to 54.64 against the US dollar in early trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange, aided by selling of the American currency by exporters and banks.
The US dollar bought 99.40 yen in Asian trade, compared with 99.21 in North American trade late on Monday.
The dollar index eased 0.05 per cent to 98.69.
The rupee lost 37 paise to end at 62.60 against the dollar on Tuesday following demand for the US currency and a fall in local equities on further rate hike concerns.
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